[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 24 22:30:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 242227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242216 
TXZ000-OKZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242216Z - 250015Z

MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL TX...A CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL EXISTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALTHOUGH REGION IS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF PRIMARY BACKGROUND FORCING
FOR ASCENT/STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAS
BEEN MODEST THUS FAR...VISIBLE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
FEATURES ISOLATED POCKETS OF MORE AGGRESSIVE CU...PERHAPS TIED TO A
SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS VIRTUALLY NIL IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL TX...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR ALTUS OK/WEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TX...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND JUNCTION TX. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DEEPLY MIXED PLUME WITH LOW TO MID 90S F TEMPERATURES IS
IMPINGING UPON DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
TX...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.

OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE JAYTON TX PROFILER CAPTURE MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
SOUTHWESTLY WINDS NOTED IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER AND ABOVE. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/ADEQUATE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
PROVIDED CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE PRUDENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30839846 30309926 30640019 31279972 32039927 32599920
34109902 33859780 33279748 32009760 31449794 

WWWW