[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 241813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813 
OKZ000-KSZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL THROUGH NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241813Z - 242015Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A CORRIDOR FROM SWRN KS SWD
INTO W CNTRL AND POSSIBLY SWRN OK BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN OK WWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN
NWRN OK. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL
OK NWWD INTO NWRN OK. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
EXTREME WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD
THROUGH SWRN KS AND FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN NWRN OK SWWD THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE.
AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SWD ACROSS W CNTRL OR SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO SLY OVER
CNTRL AND W CNTRL OK AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. RECENT VWP DATA HAS SHOWN
THE FLOW IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER HAS BACKED DURING THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS CNTRL OK. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT IN NWRN OK SWD THROUGH WRN OK ALONG AND E OF THE
DRYLINE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER NWRN OK AND SWRN KS AND SWD SOME DISTANCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ADVANCES EWD. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. BEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS
OF NWRN AND CNTRL OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO INTERACT WITH MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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