[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 24 16:11:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241608 
OKZ000-KSZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS INTO NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...

VALID 241608Z - 241745Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS OR SO ACROSS NERN OK AS STORMS DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD.

EARLY THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER NERN OK INTO
SERN KS N OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO NWRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT CONTRIBUTED
TO STRONG LIFT N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND MOST OF THE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER NERN OK THAT APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING SWD ALONG THE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEW CELLS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE CONVECTION AT THE
INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE ATMOSPHERE SW OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RAISES UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE STORMS
WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND
THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS ON THE SWRN FLANKS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35759685 36619774 37149691 37149529 36059510 

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