[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 232347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232346 
TXZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232346Z - 240115Z

ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS GIVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK
VICINITY. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS PORTRAYS MODEST CU
FIELD/FAILED ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE LUBBOCK
VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MASS FIELDS ARE BETTER FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION...SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE HAS LARGELY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY PER ADJUSTED RUC
SOUNDINGS/18Z REESE RAOB. IN PRESENCE OF MODEST MASS
CONVERGENCE...SOME WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT YET REMAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN
INITIATION...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. EVEN PROVIDED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT DEVELOPMENT
WOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

34260284 34560161 34280043 32610079 32850264 

WWWW