[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 232212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232212 
MOZ000-KSZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232212Z - 232345Z

ERN KS AND SWRN MO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY RAPID
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN
MO...APPEARS IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS NORTH OF A SLN-EMP-JLN LINE.
PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH STRONG
HEATING AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
UPPER RIDGE...WHILE NOT CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT...MAY BE ENHANCED BY
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS NWRN KS ATTM. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.

AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE ZONE OF FORCING IS VERY UNSTABLE
AND SHOULD FUEL INTENSE UPDRAFTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME
WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST WLY FLOW OF
40-50KT IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM
ROTATION. SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THIS
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STORM INTERACTIONS LOCALLY
REINFORCE HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENTS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND APPEAR
POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED FROM ANY CELL TRACKING
NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38149294 36919331 37339741 38869763 39519684 39149403
38799317 

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