[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 22 20:21:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222018 
MOZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MO OZARKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222018Z - 222215Z

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK. 
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ROTATING
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED
LOW...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
MISSOURI OZARKS.  THIS IS OCCURRING ON EASTERN FRINGE OF CAPPING
LOW/MID-LEVEL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP...AND CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE INTO THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS
POINT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER TO
THE NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE.  IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS THAT ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE
23/00Z.  FRONTAL FORCING WILL ENHANCE LIFT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD
TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER.

IF STORMS DEVELOP...SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38419443 38679357 38559250 38469162 37899122 37399193
37369340 37799444 

WWWW