[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 22 19:55:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221952 
TXZ000-NMZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221952Z - 222145Z

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX.
MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...POSSIBLY BY
21Z-22Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY NM/SOUTHWEST TX MOUNTAINS AT MID AFTERNOON...NAMELY NEAR
ROSWELL/ARTESIA NM. EVEN IN PRESENCE OF AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
ACROSS WEST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NM WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN NM/WEST TX PLAINS...WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL SPREADING EASTWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.

TRENDS FROM THE TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS NM PROFILERS SUGGEST A
DEEPENING/LOWERING OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 35-40 KTS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COMMON IN
THE MID LEVELS. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ACROSS THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP/EVOLVE INTO WEST/NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY
INCREASING AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE. IT APPEARS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED BY THE 21Z-22Z TIMEFRAME.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31520490 32570493 34550442 35810361 35850175 34910117
32710205 31000258 30970385 

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