[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 22 19:22:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221919 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NW OH...NRN AND CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221919Z - 222115Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF CLOSED UPPER LOW.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AND ONGOING DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF MUSKEGON.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL ONLY
ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...BUT WITH FURTHER HEATING IN MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS SHOULD INCREASE.  MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DETROIT
AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.

THEREAFTER...MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL
BECOME REORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA...AS A 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW.  PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION...IN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION.  ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS.

..KERR.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

43788588 44388579 44628499 44198345 43148267 42108261
40618382 39228594 39538720 40338716 41648574 

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