[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 22 17:10:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221707 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-221830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC...PARTS OF ERN SC AND SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237...

VALID 221707Z - 221830Z

CONTINUE WW 237.  ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA...ARE BEING MONITORED.

MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH APPEARS TO BE JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES HAVE ALREADY
PROGRESSED THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM...THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  THIS INCLUDES ONE WAVE/WIND
SHIFT WHICH HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR NARROW INTENSIFYING LINE OF
CONVECTION FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH RALEIGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.  WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS.  AND...30 TO 40
KT MEAN FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS
AND ENHANCED RISK OF STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH 21-22Z.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN NUMBER
UPSTREAM...BUT LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND DESTABILIZATION
IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32787933 32438061 31968164 31528347 32178394 34008375
35198271 35458051 36597861 36847816 37427728 37437691
36117605 35467602 34257669 33417774 33227820 33137844 

WWWW