[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221620 
FLZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL/NRN FL PEN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221620Z - 221745Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...DUE PRIMARILY TO RELATIVELY SHORT TIME DURATION AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED THREAT.

SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTENANCE OF
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION.  STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY VIGOROUS...AND SEEM
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER NEXT FEW HOURS AS ELIMINATION OF NEAR
SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION ALLOWS DEVELOPMENT OUT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY POSE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS
THEY APPROACH GAINESVILLE BY 18Z.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SPREADS
EAST OF GAINESVILLE INTO COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH
DAYTONA BEACH BY 20Z.

..KERR.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30248282 30348217 30158153 29688124 28928109 28918181
29208249 29438305 29858278 

WWWW