[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221228 
NCZ000-SCZ000-221400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SC...S-CENTRAL/SERN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221228Z - 221400Z

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  SHORT/INTENSIFYING LINE OF
TSTMS...LOCATED BETWEEN AGS-CAE AS OF 12Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD APPROXIMATELY 40 KT...CROSSING CAE AREA BY 13Z AND REACHING
AREA BETWEEN FLO AND NC BORDER IN 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME GIVEN MOTION
SIMILAR TO PRESENT.  THIS BAND OF TSTMS MAY EXPAND -- BACKBUILDING
EWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS -- AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED. 
OCCASIONAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

EXPECT RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN ORDER FOR
ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST 10-15 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW JUST
ABOVE SFC...GIVEN 30-35 KT 850 MB WINDS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP.
FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH ONSET OF
DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WITH ONLY 2-3 DEG F WARMING NECESSARY TO
ENSURE SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCEL BASED ON SHORT-TERM RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS.  MLCAPES MAY RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG.  WEAK SFC FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES THROUGH 0-3 KM
LAYER...YIELDING SRH 100-200 J/KG.  CAP APPARENT IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT...AND WITH PROXIMITY TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS
GA ATTM.  THEREFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SEPARATE
FROM AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND...OVER ERN CAROLINAS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

33278146 34148173 35248041 35727930 35537865 34877799
33507909 33108034 

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