[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 21 20:43:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212039 
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...GA...AL...WRN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...233...

VALID 212039Z - 212145Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 232 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. 
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 233.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN GEORGIA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL WW.

WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS YET TO EVOLVE...BUT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF LOUISIANA/
MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  INFLUX OF DRIER LOWER
/MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR AND DOWNWARD MIXING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
EASTERN ALABAMA HAS LOWERED BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SOME. 
HOWEVER...MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH 40
TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BIRMINGHAM SHORTLY...AND LIKELY
MONTGOMERY BY 22-23Z...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN
AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY 22/00Z.

..KERR.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

31738815 32628837 33628714 34678430 33588378 32508417
31098546 30798673 30928818 

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