[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 21 18:51:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211848 
FLZ000-GAZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL AND FAR
SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211848Z - 212045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
WILL EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
GA. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE OR NO BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ARE LEADING TO DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WITH FIRST STORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OCALA AND BROOKSVILLE FL. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
INTERIOR FL INTO SOUTHERN GA...WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG PER
CURRENT TRENDS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
INSTABILITY...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /15 KTS OR LESS 0-6 KM PER
CURRENT WSR-88D VWPS AND REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/. A PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE THE NORM WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS...WITH THREATS FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO VIA BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
OVERALL THREAT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30578310 30928259 30538175 28148098 27668186 28438241
29938298 

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