[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 22:56:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202254 
TXZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223...

VALID 202254Z - 210030Z

AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER SCNTRL TX JUST EAST OF THE
AUSTIN AREA. AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EWD...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF WW 223.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM NE TX
ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID 60S F WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM SOUTH TX
EXTENDING NNEWD JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
SEWD AND A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE
TX THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 55 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL TX MOVING EWD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SE TX SUSTAINING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKER OVER
SE TX KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29169724 29919769 30439746 30699659 30959560 30299485
29339563 

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