[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 21:18:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202115 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...

VALID 202115Z - 202315Z

TSTMS HAVE HAD TROUBLE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS WW 222 OVER THE
LAST FEW HRS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION AS ASCENT REMAINS AHEAD OF WEAK VORT
MAX OVER AR AND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS IN SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. 

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOLOW OVER SERN AR...AND
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION.
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF GLH TO CBM.
THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SVR THREAT FOR
ANY STORM THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. 

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR STORM TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF WW 222 ACROSS SWRN TN WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXIST. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND ANOTHER WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34978811 35558820 35918902 35019031 34819050 34199220
32949245 33038996 33098838 

WWWW