[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 192212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192212 
TXZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192212Z - 200015Z

ISOLATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX /SW OF THE DFW METRO AREA/ MAY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME SVR AS THEY MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN TX
/AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 209/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

RECENT SAT OBS INDICATES THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE /CENTERED AROUND THE
850 MB LAYER/ WAS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY NORTH OF A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT NWD OVER CENTRAL TX. AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES NWD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 3 KM AND AID IN AN INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF SWRN TX. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL BE REALIZED BY THESE STORMS OVER NCENTRAL/NERN TX. GIVEN
40-45 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AN INCREASING SVR HAIL THREAT
WOULD THUS OCCUR.

..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

33249467 32769717 32569790 32359873 32129881 31499838
31469761 31609668 32119513 32329445 32959425 

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