[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 21:52:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192150 
ALZ000-MSZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CNTRL MS...WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192150Z - 192315Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS NRN MS WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND DRIFTING
SSEWD ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z
ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN MS
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE RESULTING IN STRONG
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE AND SPREAD SSEWD THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 30 KT...SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF GREATER THAN 20 DEGREES F WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS AND MORE WELL-DEVELOPED LINE
SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

34119007 34468917 34418843 33718741 33038711 32448701
32188780 32118867 32428940 32959020 33489031 33689029 

WWWW