[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 17:37:36 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191735 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-191930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SRN AR AND NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191735Z - 191930Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS /WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT/ MAY DEVELOP
BY 19Z OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. AREA
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW OVER FAR NERN TX NEAR
GGG...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
AR/LA BORDER. MODIFIED 12Z SHV SOUNDING FOR 17Z SFC CONDITIONS
INDICATES LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS WITH MODERATE CU
OBSERVED RECENTLY ON VIS SAT IMAGERY JUST EAST OF GGG. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING/DIMINISHING CINH MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. DESPITE MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION /35-40 KTS PER RECENT DE
QUEEN AND PALESTINE PROFILER DATA /...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG / WILL AID IN STRONG UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
/EVIDENT PER ACCAS FIELD ON SAT DATA/ SUGGESTS STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 DEG C/KM / FURTHER SUPPORTING THREAT FOR LARGE
SVR HAIL. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE INITIATED SVR
CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...SOME OF THIS ACCAS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /AND BECOME SVR/ AS
IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33419209 33299303 33209380 33139417 32779466 32449490
31959488 31659435 31609364 31779186 32349099 33199132 

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