[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191656 
SCZ000-GAZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191656Z - 191900Z

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN GA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  NEW WW IS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH NOT IMMINENT. 
LESSER SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- ALSO EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS SRN SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS SERN GA...AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES PER LATEST SURFACE OBS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHWEST
OF NW-SE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN
AND ERN GA/SC. THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN GA SEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO NEAR SAV...SW OF WHICH INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.

THOUGH VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON -- CONFIRMED BY GRAVITY WAVE APPARENT IN VISIBLE
LOOP...CONTINUED HEATING/MIXING COMBINED WITH LIFT INVOF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING/INCREASING TO NWLY AT 40 TO 45 KT AT MID
LEVELS...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.  THOUGH
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT STORMS
SHOULD ORGANIZED INTO A SEWD-MOVING LINE/BOW WITH TIME...CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FURTHER NW -- ON COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
SC...STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION.  THOUGH LOCAL HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FOR LIMITED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

33488348 33698236 33748153 32738008 30978152 30688369
32098418 33048418 

WWWW