[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 11:30:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191128 
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-191230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND NERN TN...SERN KY...SWRN VA
AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...207...

VALID 191128Z - 191230Z

OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS IN WW 206 TO WEAKEN...BUT ISOLATED
HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A LINE OF STRONG
STORMS CONTINUES IN WW 207 FROM S CNTRL KY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 206 THIS MORNING.
PORTIONS OF SERN TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS
MORNING. 

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED TO WLY ACROSS TN. WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
SERN KY...SWRN VA...NERN TN AND WRN NC. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS INITIAL STRONG CELLS HAVE
MERGED...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM REGION OVER
PARTS OF NERN TN INTO WRN NC. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
FARTHER W FROM S CNTRL KY SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. STRONGEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. THE DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR SERVED AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...AS HEATING COMMENCES...SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
TN...AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS
MORNING.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

35278335 35928542 36118612 36748538 37378479 37528315
37028239 35498151 

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