[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 08:46:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190843 
KYZ000-191015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KY...S CNTRL KY THROUGH EXTREME SRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

VALID 190843Z - 191015Z

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD NEXT FEW
HOURS. BEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ON SRN END
OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN KY. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S
CNTRL KY.

EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM EXTREME SRN
IND SWD INTO SWRN KY. THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE AND
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THE LINE IS MOSTLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. THIS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST WITH SRN END STORMS PRIOR TO
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT 35 TO 40 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN
EDGE OF WW 205 BY 0915-0930Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE AND NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING THEIR
INTENSITY...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED E OF WW 205.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

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