[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 03:39:20 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190336 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-190530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN IL...NERN
MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...202...

VALID 190336Z - 190530Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL --- PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WWS AND MAY
EXTEND EWD INTO EXTREME ERN IA AND NWRN IL.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF
MAINLY 1 INCH AND SMALLER DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER WWS
DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. SINCE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MRGLLY
SEVERE...AND LIKELY NOT AS NUMEROUS AS FARTHER W ACROSS NRN MO AND
IA...WW NOT PLANNED ATTM.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT AS OF 315Z...FIRST FROM
NWRN PORTIONS WW 213 NWD TO NEAR UIN/BRL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E
OF WWS SHORTLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS.  TSTMS IN OTHER BAND -- GENERALLY BETWEEN MCW AND 20 SW IRK
-- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW 201...AND
FROM NERN PORTIONS WW 199 INTO SERN IA AND EXTREME NERN MO. 
MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
OVER SRN IA/IL BORDER REGION...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES.
 EXPECT 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG...WITH BUOYANCY ROOTED IN 750-850 MB LAYER. 
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY 20-30 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEARS...WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED LARGE
HAIL EVENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

38889144 39359154 40479216 40509309 41439330 42009390
42739379 42739248 42189080 41508970 40378960 39098984 

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