[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 02:46:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190243 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-190445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AR / FAR SERN OK AND NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190243Z - 190445Z

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT.

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.
00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS WHEN MODIFIED FOR MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AS SEEN ON UPSTREAM SHV SOUNDING. SOME CAPPING
EXISTS...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION GOING. AREA VWPS
INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

..JEWELL.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

35509348 35999287 36329196 36489136 36299067 35719070
34609180 33389297 32949402 32739476 32789542 33169600
33599595 34109517 

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