[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 17 01:10:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170108 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-170245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN INDIANA//EXTREME N-CENTRAL KY.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 170108Z - 170245Z

NARROW CORRIDOR OF SRN INDIANA BETWEEN SRN EDGE OF WW 195 AND OH
RIVER WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG SRN EDGE OF
SEVERE COMPLEX OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING FROM ERN IL INTO WRN INDIANA. 
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH HYBRID HP SUPERCELL/BOW
ECHO OVER KNOX COUNTY INDIANA...WHICH PRODUCED MEASURED
HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE IN ERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IL. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OUT OF SRN-MOST
COUNTIES IN WW...AND ACROSS PORTIONS ORANGE/WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...TOWARD NWRN/NRN FRINGES SDF METRO AREA.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SBCINH WITH
SWD EXTENT ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO ADJACENT PORTION NRN
KY.  BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE GRADUALLY OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS BECAUSE OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.  THEREFORE THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE PROBABILITY THAT TSTMS MAY NOT SURVIVE AS FAR AS SDF
AREA.  HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE-SCALE
LIFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY -- SUCH AS STRONG FORCED ASCENT
PROVIDED BY LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW SLAB.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN TERMS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER SRH BECAUSE OF STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN LOW
LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT TRAINING OF CORES PRODUCING 2-3
INCH/HOUR RAINFALL RATES ALONG SWRN INDIANA CORRIDOR BETWEEN
KNOX/SULLIVAN COUNTIES...BMG AREA AND ORANGE COUNTY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

38708827 39008773 39448712 39498654 39418582 39048557
38598560 38298563 38198579 38118627 38348757 

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