[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 23:16:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162314 
INZ000-ILZ000-170115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS INDIANA...SRN/ERN IL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...195...

VALID 162314Z - 170115Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD FROM ERN IL INTO WRN
INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS THAT INCLUDES
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS.  SRN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY -- WITH UNIMPEDED
SFC-BASED INFLOW ATTM -- IS STRONGLY RIGHTWARD
DEVIANT...CLASSIC/CYCLIC SUPERCELL OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY IL WITH
HISTORY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND AT LEAST TWO TORNADO REPORTS.  THIS
TSTM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WABASH RIVER OVER PORTIONS
SULLIVAN/KNOX/DAVIESS/GREENE COUNTIES INDIANA THROUGH 2Z.  LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER N...MOVING EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA
BORDER.  

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED LOW OVER ERN IA...TRIPLE-POINT LOW
BETWEEN SPI-PIA...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ESEWD FROM LATTER LOW ACROSS
IND TO CINCINNATI AREA.  MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND E
OF SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
SEPARATING MORE STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR  OF SERN MO/SWRN
IL FROM AREAS FORMERLY COVERED IN STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SERN IN/SWRN
INDIANA.  THIS BOUNDARY -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR SPI TO 20 W
EVV -- SHOULD MOVE EWD OUT OF SERN PORTIONS WW 193 SHORTLY.  THROUGH
2Z...AIR MASS BETWEEN WARM FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW
LCL...INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS THAT ARE SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY
SO...AND SOMEWHAT BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN REGION OF LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS.  ACCORDINGLY...0-1 KM SRN IS MAXIMIZED
OVER SERN IL/SWRN INDIANA AT 250-300 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS
40-50 KT AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

38488863 39798907 40768978 41188934 41078793 40918695
40898597 40688561 40118542 39388543 38868558 38578679 

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