[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 20:26:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162024 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST
INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162024Z - 162230Z

CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MO/SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST INDIANA FOR POSSIBILITY OF
A WATCH ISSUANCE.

ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCH 193...MODERATE CU FIELD
EXISTS INVOF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHWEST
IL...NAMELY FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO TO NEAR FARMINGTON MO AND POPLAR
BLUFF MO. GIVEN RELATIVELY MORE MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT IN WARM SECTOR...LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS QUESTIONABLE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RATHER SCANT WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS PER RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH REGION BEING BRUSHED BY
IA CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR A SUPERCELL AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT
GIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.

..GUYER.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...SGF...

38329094 38398830 38528634 37448582 36908687 36698847
36748927 36849060 36969127 37519153 

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