[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 162011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162010 
VAZ000-WVZ000-162145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162010Z - 162145Z

A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WV AND WRN VA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANTICIPATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR
GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH IN THIS AREA.

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR STATIONARY FRONT CROSSING THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM WRN VA INTO SERN WV. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING AIDED BY APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE INSTABILITY...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT PRESENT.

..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...

37107906 37028122 37288184 37598172 37778072 37877931
37687898 

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