[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161215 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-161415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...WRN KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161215Z - 161415Z

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY FROM EXTREME SERN IL MAY CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS
TIME.

EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM EXTREME SRN IL INTO
WRN KY AND SPREADING EWD. STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND ROOTED NEAR 700 MB
BASED ON RUC SOUNDING DATA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
C/KM AND EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEST MUCAPE
AOB 800 J/KG SUGGESTS OVERALL HAIL SIZE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 1
INCH OR LESS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH WRN KY AND INTO
SRN IL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES LATER THIS
MORNING.

..DIAL.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

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