[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 04:41:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160439 
MOZ000-ILZ000-160545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN MO AND CENTRAL/SRN IA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192...

VALID 160439Z - 160545Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY...AND ACCORDINGLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...IS DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY IN WW.  REMAINDER WW MAY BE
CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z EXPIRATION OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT
TIME.  ACTIVITY STILL IN ERN-MOST COUNTIES OF WW NEAR IRK -- ALONG
TAIL END OF MCS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SERN
IA WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.  REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 520 FOR DETAILED DISCUSSION ON AREA E OF WW.

MEANWHILE...INITIAL LINE OF FRONTALLY FORCED TSTMS OVER SERN KS
MOSTLY HAS WEAKENED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM LOCATED OVER
VERNON COUNTY MO...AS OF 415Z. THIS TSTM HAS DISPLAYED INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCED HAIL ESTIMATED UP TO 1.75
INCH DIAMETER...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  50-60 KT
LLJ CONTRIBUTES TO 0-3 KM SRH EXCEEDING 700 J/KG OVER NARROW
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  EFFECTIVE SHEARS BASED ON RUC
SOUNDINGS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON STRONG
SBCINH...ALTHOUGH SLGT MODIFICATIONS RESULT IN LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SFC.  CINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...BUT SRN/CENTRAL MO AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

37629456 38199386 38769341 39419286 40359221 40129083
37879094 

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