[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 02:16:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160214 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-160345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...NWRN MO...WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192...

VALID 160214Z - 160345Z

BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM MKC AREA NNEWD TO SW OF DSM
INCLUDED AT LEAST TWO POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS OF 2Z -- IN
N-CENTRAL/NERN PORTIONS KC METRO AND DEKALB/DAVIESS COUNTY MO. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THIS BAND AS IT MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL IA NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  MEANWHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND W-CENTRAL MO
S OF WW 192 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LAYER PARCELS
-- IN INFLOW REGION OF NWRN MO CONVECTION -- MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED ABOVE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...INDICATING GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 600 J/KG AND MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG IN PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FARTHER SW...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MERGED WITH
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS -- FROM LWC AREA SWWD ACROSS COWLEY
COUNTY.  THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE/PROPAGATE SWWD ALONG DRYLINE
INTO S-CENTRAL KS AND N-CENTRAL OK.  CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
COMBINED BOUNDARY FROM LWC TO GREENWOOD COUNTY KS...IN ZONE OF
MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL/DRYLINE
ASCENT.  STRONG CINH IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN OK...SO EVEN WITH FRONTAL
LIFT...BACKBUILDING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO N OF KS/OK BORDER. 
DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR VECTORS HAVE SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT
PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LINEAR MODE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37739608 38259548 38999491 39409419 39879392 40269383
40699392 41269415 41909489 42209441 42149350 41209257
40319232 39489228 38929285 38129401 37779547 

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