[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151814 
SDZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151814Z - 151945Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED
NATURE...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. 

ARC OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD...LIKELY TIED TO INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA
DRYSLOT/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CYCLONE. 17Z RUC/09Z NAMKF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT 300-500 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SD. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF BUOYANCY...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/CLOUD
BEARING SHEARING SUCH THAT A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..GUYER.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43230242 44080258 44760155 44709833 43429766 43169945
43150077 

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