[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151659 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-151800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151659Z - 151800Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN PA...SRN NJ...AND THE DELMARVA REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR COLD
FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION NOW OVER SERN PA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM ERN/NRN VA
TO SRN NJ. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
ELIMINATE REMAINING INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM
INITIATION ACROSS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL 
APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STORMS FORMING AND MERGING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND LEE-TROUGH COULD EVOLVE INTO FAST MOVING SMALL SCALE
LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
ACTIVITY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO TO COVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

40287565 40257461 39707424 37877536 36947597 36727688
36927768 37327878 37907901 39337731 39887678 

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