[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 12 21:06:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122104 
TXZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122104Z - 122330Z

PREDOMINATELY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU EXTENDING FROM S OF CDS TO E OF
MAF...ALONG SOON TO BE RETREATING DRYLINE AND WITHIN SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONTINUED
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD. THUS...ONLY PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
1000-1500 MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...WITH DECREASING
THREAT AFTER SUNSET.

..JEWELL.. 04/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

34069952 32529999 31780094 31520127 32440215 33100177
33970118 34390057 34450004 

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