[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 12 20:06:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122004 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN MO...EXTREME NERN OK...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122004Z - 122200Z

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND AR. 
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AR.  VSBL
SATL SHOWS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS GROWING THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM
EAST OF KTUL TO JUST WEST OF THE MO BOOTHEEL.

THOUGH THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER-3KM LAYER IS WEAK...STRONGER
FLOW EXISTS ABOVE...BOOSTING 6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE. 
THIS SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ISOLD MULTICELL STORMS WILL EXIST WITH
SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS. 
NONETHELESS...SHALLOW INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..RACY.. 04/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36669435 36539360 36319211 36129134 35679149 35559231
35659331 36139504 

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