[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 8 03:18:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080316 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-080445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA / NRN AND CNTRL MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 169...

VALID 080316Z - 080445Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF WW AREA
THROUGH 04-05Z.  IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST FROM JUST SW OF MSL EWD THROUGH HSV...EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NERN
AL.  FARTHER TO THE W...A CONVECTIVE LINE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
MORE SW-NE ORIENTED OVER THE MS DELTA SWWD INTO N-CNTRL
LA...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM GLH TO
GWO AND EVENTUALLY SWD TO I-20 OVER W-CNTRL MS.

AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SW-NE ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE SHIELD FROM N-CNTRL LA ACROSS NRN MS...NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE AND ERN TN.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
LARGER COMPLEX...THE MOST INTENSE OF WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER LAWRENCE
AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AL.  KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /AS
SAMPLED BY BHM VWP/ REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED OWING TO 50-60 KT SWLY
WINDS AT 1 KM WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-400 M2/S2.  00Z BHM OBSERVED
AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT INFLOW AIR MASS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH ONGOING
INTENSE UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE SUCCESSFULLY OVERCOMING ANY CIN.

EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT LAWRENCE/MORGAN COUNTY SUPERCELL TAKES IT
VERY CLOSE TO HSV BY 330Z...AND TO NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY
430-05Z.

FARTHER TO THE W...CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED FROM
TALLAHATCHIE AND LEFLORE COUNTIES IN NWRN MS SWWD TO WEST CARROLL
PARISH IN NERN MS.  SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...THIS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORMAL TO 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOW OR LEWP ECHO EVOLUTION AND
A RESULTANT INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

33469206 35608530 32858543 30759199 

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