[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 8 02:22:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080221 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-080315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 080221Z - 080315Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
BEYOND 03Z.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF THIS THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
LINE FROM LAWRENCE AND CABELL COUNTIES IN WRN WV SWWD TO WARREN AND
SIMPSON COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KY MOVING SEWD AT 30-40 KTS.  RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS TO
THE W FROM WRN TN SWD INTO MS AND AL WITH AIR MASS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN KY...TO THE N OF ONGOING STORMS OVER ERN TN.

CURRENT JKL VWP INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY
SHEARED WITH 50 KT WSWLY WINDS AT .5 KM INCREASING TO 70 KTS AT 5
KM.  THEREFORE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS.

THIS THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38577933 38817877 38597776 37477788 36677825 36537882
36697958 

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