[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 22:14:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 072212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072212 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-072345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / NRN AND CNTRL MS / NRN AND
CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 163...

VALID 072212Z - 072345Z

THROUGH 00Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF THEM
SIGNIFICANT/ IS EXPECTED IN A SW-NE CORRIDOR FROM SE OF GLH TO NEAR
TUP TO NE MSL.

SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE ARKLAMS NEWD ACROSS NRN MS WITH SEVERAL
STORM SPLITS...SUGGESTING UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. 
THIS NOTION IS CONFIRMED BY CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER DATA WHICH
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2.  21Z JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A LOW-LEVEL
MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 10-11 G/KG...WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS SOUNDING ALSO EXHIBITED A MODERATELY HIGH
LCL /1800 M/ OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS
OF AROUND 25 F.

DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR TORNADOES WITH ALL RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW 163
AREA.  COOLING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z...SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FORT A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

34599268 35768601 32518609 31269275 

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