[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 072153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072153 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-072300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LA INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072153Z - 072300Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT A SEWD MOVING
GRAVITY WAVE COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF
VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
BACKBUILDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO S-CNTRL AR AND
N-CNTRL AR.  ADDITIONAL SWWD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND SHOULD IT
BECOME MORE APPARENT SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED W OF WW 163 AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

33469340 33289303 32149291 31509284 30759375 30309476
30629552 31379583 32259527 

WWWW