[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 19:03:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 061902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061902 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SD/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061902Z - 062100Z

...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 850 MB REVEALS BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...TRAINING CELLS WILL ALSO POSE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL. STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD EWD INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF MN LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO INCREASING WAA.

..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

43819657 43770137 44310263 45640292 46249941 45899568
44269571 

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