[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061751 
OKZ000-061945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH PARTS OF NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061751Z - 061945Z

N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SSWWD
THROUGH WRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD THROUGH W CNTRL
OK AND INTERSECTS THE FRONT IN S CNTRL KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW AN AXIS OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG ACROSS W CNTRL OK IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. PRESSURE FALLS
INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN AND W CNTRL KS.
THIS ZONE OF FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL KS NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL
SHARPEN. THE INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL OK AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING OVER W CNTRL OK JUST W OF OKC.
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

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