[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 17:14:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 061712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061712 
NEZ000-KSZ000-061915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061712Z - 061915Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
APPEAR LIKELY INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THREATS WILL
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN E CNTRL
NEB SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS THEN SWD AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
THROUGH WRN OK AND THE ERN PORTION OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET ADVANCING ENEWD THROUGH
WRN KS AND WRN NEB. ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER N CNTRL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SWRN KS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER NEB SHOULD BECOME MORE ELY WITH SOME WWD
RETREAT OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...ASCENT...AND EWD ADVANCE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM CNTRL
THROUGH ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 
J/KG LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS ARE PROBABLY INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD...STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT/DRYLINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWD
THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER JET ADVANCES EWD
AND AS SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS
KS/ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS.

..DIAL.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

41229639 39119663 37159726 37339891 39319945 40499975
42000019 42469914 42259744 

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