[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060620 
SDZ000-NEZ000-060745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SD AND EXTREME NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060620Z - 060745Z

TSTMS OVER SWRN SD WILL LIKELY EXPAND ESEWD INTO EXTREME NRN NEB AND
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SRN/CNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED.

H5 JET OF 70+ KTS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WY UPPER LOW WAS NOSING
NWD INTO WRN NEB...PLACING A STRONG DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CORRESPONDING
SLY LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTS WAS IMPINGING ON AN E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER. RESULTING DEEP UVV WAS
ALREADY SUPPORTING TSTMS ACROSS SWRN SD.

PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG/N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO EXTREME NRN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN SD THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THOUGH EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 35
KTS...LAPSE RATES WERE QUITE STEEP.  THUS...AS TSTMS
DEVELOP...UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION QUITE
LIKELY.  AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE...COMPETITION OF UPDRAFTS
MAY TEND TO TEMPER THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE MORNING. 
BUT...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..RACY.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

44870270 44689987 44379712 44039719 42089784 42319911
43020306 

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