[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 03:38:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 060337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060336 
MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-060500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO NWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060336Z - 060500Z

ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0320Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
ELEVATED STORMS FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY NWWD INTO CALLAWAY COUNTY MO
WITH NICKEL TO GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED.  ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR CID SEWD TO E OF
UIN.  FINALLY...IR SATELLITE DATA SHOW A BAND OF CLOUD ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE ONGOING...E-CNTRL MO ACTIVITY NWWD TO NEAR OMA.

REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG AN INTENSIFYING SLY/SWLY LLJ
ON THE ERN OR NERN EDGE OF CAP WHICH IS IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS /PER 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS/.  HERE...INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RESULTING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT OWING TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LLJ AND RESULTANT FORCING VIA WAA AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

38479132 38539224 40279512 41519592 41969536 42129316
41839182 40539070 39079055 38699088 

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