[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022202 
TXZ000-022330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...

VALID 022202Z - 022330Z

AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS
INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING SWWD
FROM SE OK ACROSS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DUE TO STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF NE TX. IF STORM COVERAGE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS MANY OF THE
SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

31629426 30959625 31209721 31979706 32889473 32349404 

WWWW