[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 2 20:17:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022016 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...

VALID 022016Z - 022145Z

CONTINUE WW.  POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED NORTHEAST OF WW 130 BEFORE 21Z.

RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY AXIS...TRAILING FROM DEEP SOUTHWEST IOWA SURFACE
CYCLONE...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS.  BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DESPITE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN
WARM SECTOR...SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN
SUPERCELLS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG
DEVELOPING LINE.  BETTER RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THE
21-00Z TIME FRAME...AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN LINE BEGIN TO CROSS OLD
WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS INTO THE
QUINCY/OTTUMWA AREAS.  WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THIS
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS MAY BE SLOWER TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

41039285 41739264 42019165 42089067 41588928 40538889
39498889 38568920 37548986 36739113 36739330 38099278
39829255 

WWWW