[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 2 16:04:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021603 
TXZ000-021800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021603Z - 021800Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY SHORTLY.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS HAVE WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR
INITIAL OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF WACO.
VEERING LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH/WEST OF WACO
INTO THE TYLER/LONGVIEW AREAS. THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MID-LEVELS WILL BE SUPPORT OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31009901 31769863 32319735 32889605 33369523 33029433
32029441 31239522 30929703 30429915 

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