[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 2 15:43:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021542 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SE MO...WRN KY...WRN TN...NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021542Z - 021715Z

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF INITIAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LIFTING THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A MORE SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
IMPULSE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO WESTERLY ACROSS MISSOURI
ARKANSAS.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WRAPPING INTO DEEP SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD OF THE OZARKS TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER...SCATTERED
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
WARMING WITH INSOLATION...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BECOME DEEPLY MIXED
UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  THUS...THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME
SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE INVERSION
LAYER. ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000
J/KG IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

33809150 33799236 34599269 35529180 36399111 36909100
37499065 37328955 36908839 36348811 35058948 33919107 

WWWW