[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011812 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE CO/WRN KS SOUTHWARD THRU FAR WRN OK AND
MUCH OF THE TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011812Z - 011945Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 03/21Z...WITH INCREASING
TORNADIC POTENTIAL BY 02/00Z.  A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BY 20Z.

UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE.  BUT...IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH SHEARING IMPULSE COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN BROKEN
LINE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...AS IT LIFTS OUT OF
BROADER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH INTO CENTRAL U.S.. RIDGE. DRY LINE IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN NEAR THE ELKHART/AMARILLO/LUBBOCK AREAS BY PEAK
HEATING...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN STRONGLY SHEARED...CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH
A LINE OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE SHORTLY AFTER
INITIATION...SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DODGE CITY...GAGE
AND CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREAS BETWEEN 21-00Z... ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID/UPPER JET STREAK
BEGINS TO NOSE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...HODOGRAPHS/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

35880221 36740221 38070159 38750044 38349942 37459977
36139957 34969937 34269984 33390101 33000228 33580244
34250235 35000200 

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