[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 16:35:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011633 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-011830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA THRU THE DELMARVA PEN INTO SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011633Z - 011830Z

NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. 
THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS
OVERSPREADS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY
18Z...MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY THROUGH NEW JERSEY BY 21Z.

IN GENERAL...MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...BUT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COULD COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...
CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG BY
PEAK HEATING.  IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED AND COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW REGION...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  OTHER STORMS FARTHER
NORTH COULD ALSO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA.

..KERR.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

36507587 36307670 36547813 36947830 37597767 38147706
38797655 39437597 39937521 40367449 40417419 40317376 

WWWW