[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 07:08:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010707 
OKZ000-TXZ000-010930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX AND SWRN-SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 010707Z - 010930Z

TSTMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM WRN N TX
INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH 12Z.  WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM SERN OK SWWD INTO THE
TX S PLAINS.  SLY 30-40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY
AND IS SUPPORTING ELEVATED MULTI-CELL TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX. 
AS THE LLJ VEERS THIS MORNING...TSTMS ARE APT TO MOVE/DEVELOP
FARTHER N/NE ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH DAYBREAK.  

CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  BUT...PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS
WILL BE EMANATING FROM STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH HAIL. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE NEAR-SFC INVERSION AND CLOUD BASE...GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF HAIL SIZE AND SPATIAL COVERAGE...A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

34510051 34979900 35129706 34989644 34539623 33879634
33459757 33329861 33249961 33610007 

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